Human Reserve Rate observation
AI Capability Is Expanding Faster Than Delegation Rules
AIの能力は、委任規則より速く拡がっている
HRR-2026-001 · occupation-to-task economic modeling · HOLD · H3_AUTHORIZING
Observation
OBSERVED TASK
occupation-to-task economic modeling
職業からタスクへの経済モデリング
Source: Anthropic Institute. Scenarios for our Economic Future
HOLD · H3_AUTHORIZING · Observed + Inference
The classification itself is SHIRO & Co. observational interpretation. It is not an objective scientific fact.
分類自体は SHIRO & Co. の観測的解釈である。客観的な科学的事実ではない。
FACT事実
OBSERVED FACT
- Anthropic Institute published Scenarios for our Economic Future, based on the technical report Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI (Korinek et al., 2026).
- The model represents jobs as bundles of tasks. AI can leave a task unchanged, augment it, automate it, or lead to new tasks.
- The published account states that AI capability does not necessarily eliminate an occupation; the internal composition of work changes.
- The explorer estimates economic futures from expected AI capability, adoption, autonomy, productivity, and labor-market adjustment.
- The authors state that the model omits policy responses, among other forces, and that the future is not predetermined.
INTERPRETATION解釈
SHIRO & Co. INTERPRETATION
The model primarily estimates what AI may be capable of performing and how firms and workers may adapt economically. It does not fully model the institutional question: which AI-capable tasks should remain under meaningful human authority? This creates a second-order problem. As AI capability expands, societies will need explicit delegation rules determining which tasks may be automated, which require supervision, and which remain reserved for human authority.
このモデルは主に、AIが何を実行しうるか、企業と労働者が経済的にどう適応しうるかを推定する。どのAI実行可能タスクが意味ある人間の権限の下に残るべきかという制度的問いを、十分にはモデル化していない。ここに二次の問題が生じる。AIの能力が拡がるにつれ、社会は、どのタスクを自動化してよいか、どれが監督を要するか、どれが人間の権限に保留されるかを定める明示的な委任規則を必要とする。
Uncertainty
UNCERTAINTY
- The scenario explorer is Version 1.0 and is described by its authors as a simplification.
- Omitted forces include policy responses, business cycles, aggregate demand or financial disruptions, and catastrophic risks.
- This observation does not treat any scenario as a forecast of what will occur.
Signal
The next labor-market variable may not be automation rate, but delegation rate.
Human Reserve implication
Economic models can estimate how much work AI can perform. Institutions will still have to decide how much work AI should be allowed to perform.
- Domain
- Labor / Economic Systems / AI Governance
- Observed capability
- Occupations are modeled as bundles of tasks that may remain unchanged, be augmented by AI, become automated, or be newly created.
- Delegation state
- HOLD
- Human presence
- H3 — AUTHORIZING
- Confidence
- Observed + Inference
Classification applies to the institutional gap in the published scenario model, not to Anthropic as a firm.
Delegation boundary
The scenario model estimates how tasks may be augmented or automated. It does not specify which AI-capable tasks may be delegated.
Authority boundary
Economic adaptation by firms and workers is modeled. Final institutional authority over delegation is not assigned.
Accountability boundary
The published model omits policy responses. Answerability for delegated AI-capable work remains outside the scenario frame.